Where could the UK be by Freedom Day? (update)

We continue to be in fairly big trouble: a very predictable quantity of trouble, in fact

On June 30th, I projected what could happen to covid cases and hospitalisations, based on the trends at the time. So far, it’s looking…disturbingly accurate? The link between cases and hospitalisations has been weakened but not broken. And we are in for a lot of cases…

I’m not claiming to be stats Nostradamus here. Quite the opposite, actually: this was based on very simple assumptions. It is the kind of model you might describe as ‘not obviously wrong’. (You can find details in the previous post.) But the Government must know that scenarios like this aren’t way out there…and yet, they’re continuing with the unlocking anyway, in spite of the risk of of long covid (which, by the way, will cost the economy as well as human suffering), and pressure on the NHS.

Anecdotally, my other half went into work this morning to re-open the virtual covid ward at her hospital to relieve pressure on inpatient care. There is no doubt that this is affecting healthcare. The question is how much, and whether ‘Freedom’ on the 19th is worth it.

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