How many deaths are attributable to ageing globally? This report uses WHO Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to work it out.
We will assume that, if ageing were entirely cured, mortality would peak in your late 30s and that rate of death would continue indefinitely. The excess deaths over this level are thus attributable to ageing.
This is arguably a conservative estimate—we could suggest that mortality would peak at the equivalent of a younger age if ageing were completely eradicated—but relatively few 20- and 30-somethings die, so it doesn’t massively alter the statistics, and I hope it makes the numbers less open to criticism of arbitrarily choosing an unrealistically young age to make the point.
This script also uses UN data for GDP per capita for its graphics.
This graph shows that most deaths in most countries are caused by ageing.
Every day, there are 150800. deaths globally. Ageing is responsible for 105900. of them-so 70.2%. In the high-income countries, this percentage increases to 90.2% of deaths.
Ageing is the leading cause of death in 148 of 195 countries (75.9%). 81.7% of people live in countries where ageing is the leading cause of death.
This is a table of all countries and regions examined. Location names are those used by the WHO.
| Location | Deaths caused by ageing | Population | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 95.5% | 60597000. | 41000. |
| Spain | 95.1% | 46389000. | 39000. |
| Japan | 94.9% | 128360000. | 42000. |
| Germany | 94.7% | 83295000. | 52600. |
| Croatia | 94.5% | 4275500. | 26300. |
| Netherlands | 94.3% | 17029000. | 54400. |
| Switzerland | 94.3% | 8593100. | 66300. |
| Portugal | 94.3% | 10682000. | 32600. |
| Denmark | 94.2% | 5732300. | 54400. |
| Sweden | 94.2% | 10045000. | 51400. |
| Greece | 94.2% | 10402000. | 28600. |
| Austria | 94.1% | 8793100. | 53900. |
| Serbia | 93.7% | 8874100. | 16400. |
| Hungary | 93.7% | 9727400. | 28800. |
| Slovenia | 93.6% | 2068900. | 36200. |
| European Union | 93.4% | 512370000. | NA |
| Malta | 93.4% | 434470. | 41500. |
| Belgium | 93.4% | 11319000. | 49400. |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 93.3% | 3399200. | 13700. |
| Czech Republic | 93.2% | 10593000. | 38000. |
| Norway | 93.1% | 5263200. | 62200. |
| France | 92.9% | 65713000. | 44300. |
| Finland | 92.8% | 5518000. | 46300. |
| Iceland | 92.6% | 337470. | 55300. |
| United Kingdom | 92.4% | 66636000. | 44900. |
| Montenegro | 92.3% | 626320. | 19400. |
| Ireland | 92.0% | 4860600. | 76800. |
| Andorra | 91.8% | 79966. | NA |
| Luxembourg | 91.8% | 590550. | 108000. |
| Bulgaria | 91.7% | 7052300. | 20900. |
| Romania | 91.3% | 19434000. | 26600. |
| Macedonia | 91.2% | 2174800. | 15300. |
| Cyprus | 91.2% | 1262600. | 36200. |
| Canada | 91.1% | 35983000. | 46700. |
| Slovakia | 91.1% | 5419200. | 32400. |
| Israel | 91.0% | 8949200. | 38900. |
| Bermuda | 90.7% | 65886. | NA |
| Poland | 90.5% | 38393000. | 29900. |
| Armenia | 90.4% | 3027200. | 9620. |
| New Zealand | 90.3% | 4448400. | 40400. |
| Australia | 90.3% | 23943000. | 49700. |
| World Bank High Income | 90.2% | 1189600000. | NA |
| Estonia | 89.5% | 1314500. | 33400. |
| South Korea | 89.3% | 52671000. | 38800. |
| Cuba | 89.3% | 11377000. | NA |
| Singapore | 89.2% | 5568500. | 96600. |
| Albania | 88.0% | 2766200. | 12900. |
| Uruguay | 87.7% | 3421500. | 22700. |
| Latvia | 87.5% | 1945400. | 28400. |
| China | 87.3% | 1412500000. | 16800. |
| Georgia | 87.3% | 3691300. | 10700. |
| Virgin Islands, U.S. | 86.9% | 104950. | NA |
| Taiwan | 86.6% | 23583000. | NA |
| Lithuania | 86.4% | 2847600. | 33300. |
| Belarus | 86.0% | 9491000. | 18900. |
| Chile | 85.3% | 17918000. | 24200. |
| United States | 85.1% | 324840000. | 59900. |
| Moldova | 85.0% | 3721800. | 6860. |
| Argentina | 84.8% | 44266000. | 20800. |
| Turkey | 84.3% | 80457000. | 27900. |
| Barbados | 84.1% | 295880. | 18500. |
| Tunisia | 83.7% | 11442000. | 12000. |
| Grenada | 83.7% | 110880. | 14700. |
| Sri Lanka | 82.0% | 21596000. | 12900. |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 81.6% | 88957. | 25100. |
| Greenland | 81.5% | 56155. | NA |
| Dominica | 81.3% | 68933. | 10400. |
| Puerto Rico | 81.2% | 3665900. | 39000. |
| North Korea | 81.2% | 25717000. | NA |
| Mauritius | 80.6% | 1272100. | 22400. |
| World Bank Upper Middle Income | 80.0% | 2634900000. | NA |
| Saint Lucia | 79.1% | 176470. | 13600. |
| Costa Rica | 79.0% | 4653700. | 17000. |
| Malaysia | 78.4% | 30640000. | 30000. |
| Vietnam | 78.3% | 96141000. | 6860. |
| Jamaica | 77.6% | 2779300. | 8970. |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 77.5% | 44878. | NA |
| Maldives | 77.4% | 458600. | 14700. |
| Seychelles | 77.4% | 100910. | 29100. |
| Azerbaijan | 77.3% | 10225000. | 17500. |
| Ukraine | 77.2% | 44689000. | 8690. |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 77.1% | 1391800. | 31400. |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 77.1% | 114110. | 11800. |
| Lebanon | 76.5% | 8512000. | 12800. |
| Morocco | 75.6% | 35489000. | 8260. |
| Tonga | 75.2% | 102840. | 6320. |
| Russian Federation | 74.8% | 146190000. | 25800. |
| Iran | 74.8% | 82176000. | 21000. |
| Bahrain | 74.7% | 1470400. | 47700. |
| Guam | 74.7% | 167840. | NA |
| Indonesia | 73.7% | 258130000. | 12300. |
| Samoa | 73.2% | 198920. | 6680. |
| Fiji | 73.1% | 906940. | 10300. |
| Brunei | 72.8% | 432450. | 79800. |
| Paraguay | 72.5% | 6931200. | 13000. |
| Brazil | 72.3% | 211810000. | 15700. |
| Peru | 72.0% | 33220000. | 13800. |
| Panama | 71.6% | 3921100. | 24500. |
| American Samoa | 71.5% | 55631. | NA |
| Kazakhstan | 71.1% | 17904000. | 26500. |
| Colombia | 70.7% | 50606000. | 14500. |
| Bangladesh | 70.5% | 156980000. | 4000. |
| Nepal | 70.3% | 29892000. | 2870. |
| Global | 70.2% | 7640500000. | NA |
| Algeria | 69.9% | 40464000. | 15300. |
| Kuwait | 69.7% | 4262200. | 72600. |
| Mexico | 69.4% | 126570000. | 19400. |
| Thailand | 69.4% | 70626000. | 17900. |
| Bolivia | 69.3% | 11543000. | 7480. |
| Palestine | 69.2% | 4852100. | 5120. |
| Uzbekistan | 68.6% | 32237000. | 6640. |
| Kyrgyzstan | 68.5% | 6368600. | 3730. |
| Suriname | 68.4% | 572460. | 15000. |
| Egypt | 68.0% | 96484000. | 11700. |
| Ecuador | 67.9% | 16686000. | 11500. |
| India | 67.4% | 1380600000. | 7170. |
| Jordan | 66.4% | 10648000. | 9130. |
| Bhutan | 66.3% | 957410. | 10200. |
| Myanmar | 66.2% | 52795000. | 6170. |
| Nicaragua | 66.1% | 6396600. | 5690. |
| Turkmenistan | 65.7% | 4976900. | 18000. |
| El Salvador | 65.3% | 6086900. | 7970. |
| The Bahamas | 65.1% | 375440. | 31600. |
| Cambodia | 65.1% | 16122000. | 4020. |
| Venezuela | 64.8% | 30832000. | NA |
| Guyana | 64.6% | 742300. | 8140. |
| Dominican Republic | 64.2% | 10452000. | 16500. |
| Philippines | 63.8% | 103470000. | 8340. |
| Timor-Leste | 63.2% | 1287500. | 7420. |
| Mongolia | 63.2% | 3251400. | 12800. |
| Cape Verde | 63.0% | 545810. | 7030. |
| Libya | 62.6% | 6908700. | 19100. |
| Federated States of Micronesia | 62.0% | 103930. | NA |
| World Bank Lower Middle Income | 61.6% | 3120800000. | NA |
| Honduras | 61.1% | 9498800. | 4920. |
| Oman | 60.6% | 4535800. | 41100. |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 59.9% | 200210. | 3310. |
| Comoros | 59.7% | 718320. | 2750. |
| Saudi Arabia | 59.2% | 34444000. | 53700. |
| United Arab Emirates | 58.2% | 9734100. | 73400. |
| Vanuatu | 58.0% | 287570. | 3110. |
| Gabon | 57.9% | 1702700. | 17800. |
| Belize | 57.3% | 394960. | 8500. |
| Marshall Islands | 57.0% | 56311. | 3890. |
| Qatar | 55.0% | 2747300. | 125000. |
| Laos | 54.5% | 6970200. | 6940. |
| Guatemala | 53.7% | 16924000. | 8170. |
| Solomon Islands | 53.7% | 637610. | 2340. |
| Mauritania | 53.7% | 3913900. | 407. |
| Tajikistan | 53.6% | 9243700. | 3220. |
| Kiribati | 51.9% | 118240. | 2230. |
| Senegal | 50.8% | 14688000. | 3560. |
| Haiti | 50.5% | 11825000. | 1820. |
| Syria | 48.1% | 18131000. | NA |
| Botswana | 48.0% | 2281800. | 17800. |
| Sudan | 46.6% | 40256000. | 4880. |
| Pakistan | 46.6% | 214290000. | 5250. |
| The Gambia | 46.6% | 2132500. | 1610. |
| Ghana | 46.1% | 30205000. | 4460. |
| Rwanda | 45.3% | 12554000. | 2080. |
| Namibia | 44.0% | 2353500. | 11100. |
| Congo | 43.6% | 4913100. | 5610. |
| Djibouti | 43.3% | 1113100. | NA |
| Yemen | 42.4% | 30449000. | 2650. |
| Papua New Guinea | 41.0% | 9227600. | 4270. |
| Iraq | 40.4% | 43304000. | 17400. |
| Zimbabwe | 40.1% | 14714000. | 2830. |
| Eritrea | 40.0% | 5859300. | NA |
| Kenya | 39.3% | 48327000. | 3260. |
| South Africa | 39.1% | 54953000. | 13500. |
| Ethiopia | 38.9% | 102880000. | 1900. |
| Togo | 38.8% | 7516000. | 1680. |
| Guinea | 38.7% | 11820000. | 2440. |
| World Bank Low Income | 38.2% | 666760000. | NA |
| Tanzania | 38.0% | 53973000. | 3090. |
| Afghanistan | 38.0% | 32855000. | 1930. |
| Liberia | 37.1% | 4722600. | 1290. |
| Madagascar | 36.9% | 26109000. | 1560. |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 36.3% | 80885000. | 889. |
| Malawi | 36.0% | 17191000. | 1270. |
| Benin | 34.9% | 11585000. | 2280. |
| Burundi | 34.9% | 10905000. | 738. |
| Swaziland | 33.9% | 1124400. | 10500. |
| Cameroon | 33.8% | 27770000. | 3640. |
| Sierra Leone | 33.4% | 7829700. | 1540. |
| Lesotho | 33.4% | 1947600. | 3130. |
| Guinea-Bissau | 32.6% | 1855500. | 1730. |
| Angola | 32.5% | 28202000. | 6650. |
| Central African Republic | 32.3% | 4622500. | 829. |
| Zambia | 32.1% | 17364000. | 4090. |
| Uganda | 31.8% | 39078000. | 1950. |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 31.5% | 24965000. | 3920. |
| Burkina Faso | 31.4% | 21122000. | 1870. |
| Somalia | 30.4% | 16880000. | NA |
| Equatorial Guinea | 29.0% | 1345000. | 24500. |
| South Sudan | 27.4% | 9941000. | NA |
| Mozambique | 26.5% | 30035000. | 1290. |
| Mali | 25.7% | 20254000. | 2220. |
| Nigeria | 25.0% | 206090000. | 5890. |
| Chad | 24.8% | 15222000. | 1930. |
| Niger | 23.7% | 21376000. | 1010. |
About this report
This report was generated from an R script which performs the underlying calculations. The code and console output have been removed to make it easier to read. If you want to see the code, you can check out the latest version at GitHub, and if you want to view the console output, see deaths-caused-by-ageing.txt.